FOX sports betting expert
“Bear Bets” are actual bets that Chris “The Bear” Fallica actually makes.
The Los Angeles area will be the scene of a Major for the first time since 1995 as the 123rd US Open takes place Thursday through Sunday at the Los Angeles Country Club.
The World’s #1 Player, Scottie Scheffler, is the current betting favorite to win the event +700 on FOX Bet.
Since this is one of the biggest tournaments of the year, I’ve put together my best bets for you. Let’s take a look at the bets I’m making for the event.
Scottie Scheffler: Top 10 Score (-120)
I will not bet on Scheffler to win before the tournament as I have found that he has better tournament prices as did Jon Rahm in Augusta. But the top 10 award is attractive for a player who was statistically the best player on the tour from tee to green.
Since the calendar change to 2023, his worst finish is twelfth with eight top five finishes. When you add seven top-10 finishes to your last nine majors, you have to be prepared to lose that bet. I’m waiting for a seat to step in live for a win bet, but count myself in on this top 10 bet.
I haven’t contested him in a major since the 2019 Masters, where he was there on Sunday. He’s burned a ton of money in the majors since then, but lately he’s been earning some nice checks — T-9, T-14, T-8, T-14 in his last four majors.
It has taken him some time to adjust to the new kit this year, but apart from a 78th place finish at Memorial, he has been solid in recent months and has had two finishes outside the top 20 since joining missed the cut at the Phoenix Open in February.
Only Scheffler has been a better ball driver this year as measured by shots gained (SG) off the tee, and that’s critical to success here. I think he will be there next Sunday.
It seemed like DeChambeau had turned things around in the PGA Championship when he finished T-4. He’s finally looking healthy and (for the first time in a long time) seems to be playing without much outside stress.
Remember he’s a big champion and won this event at Winged Foot on a par 70 as did LACC. There will be some par 4’s that he can definitely hit and learn shots on the field.
I’m told he’s spent a lot of time preparing for LACC and I think he has a great opportunity this week at a good price.
Schauffele is as solid and reliable as can be on US Open style courses. He didn’t win – and I’m sure he’ll have supporters for the win this week in Southern California – but I’ll just stick with what has worked well for my bets on him: top 10 and top 20.
His US Open record is T-5, T-6, T-3, fifth, T-7, T-14. Not to mention he’s also playing pretty well at the moment. Since the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill in early March, he has only failed to finish in the top 20 once and is solid as usual from tee to green (8th place).
LACC has drawn some comparisons to both Shinnecock and Erin Hills. Common topic? Koepka won his US Open titles there in 2017 and 2018.
Koepka could have easily won both majors this season and it would be surprising if he weren’t back this week. I play in the top 10 and top 20 markets and am looking for a place to play live and win when warranted.
Jon Rahm: Top Spaniards (-310, bet $10 and win a total of $13.23)
It’s a fair bit of juice, and some might not want to put it down, but isn’t this essentially a neck-and-neck race between Rahm and Sergio Garcia? Rahm would have to implode and one of the other Spaniards would have to have the tournament of his life to lose that bet.
This is a fade-out of “Im” in case you can’t tell. I’ve played 11 majors outside of Augusta – he’s placed in the top 20 and missed the cut in six of them.
He also doesn’t start the week in good form, having missed the cut at the PGA Championship and the Charles Schwab and finishing outside the top 40 at the Memorial (T-41).
Max Homa Miss cut: +220 (Wager $10 to win $32 total)
Homa has a top-30 finish (T-13 in the 2022 PGA Championships) and nine missed cuts in 15 career majors. He’s made one cut in four attempts on the US Open courses, so don’t overemphasize the “California” factor, even though he played his best golf game in California earlier in the year.
Beginning with a second-place finish at Riviera in February, he’s twice been outside the top 15 (not counting missed cuts) – though both made the majors. It’s below tour average on the greens in regulation and it’s never good to find the rough at the US Open.
Tony Finau Miss cut +200 (Wager $10 to win $30 total)
Finau came off a missed cut and a weak PGA Championship (T-72) at the Schwab Challenge.
This was the only major that Finau really didn’t master with regular success. He has missed the Open Cut for the past two years and four of his last six years.
However, if he made the cut, he’d have a top-15 finish — fifth in 2018 and T-8 in 2020. So if he makes it, there might be some money to be made from that.
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has been covering sports for nearly three decades. While his primary focus has been college football, he also enjoys playing in the NFL, soccer, golf, tennis, MLB, NHL and horse racing, “occasionally” betting on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the top 10 in the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He has qualified multiple times for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @Chrisfallica.
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